Guide · Running costs

Heat pump vs gas boiler running costs in UK 2026: the real numbers

By Jim FellLast updated:

TL;DR

  • Gas boiler running cost UK 2026: roughly £780/year for a typical 3-bed semi using 12,000 kWh of heat.
  • Heat pump on flat 28p/kWh tariff: ~£1,050/year (slightly worse than gas).
  • Heat pump on Octopus Cosy: ~£640/year (~18% cheaper than gas).
  • Best-case heat pump: ~£500/year on dynamic tariff + well-insulated home + tuned weather compensation.
  • Worst-case heat pump: ~£1,400/year in an uninsulated solid-wall home on a flat tariff.
  • Insulation + tariff + tuning = the three variables that decide the running cost question.

What we’re calculating — and why it varies

Running cost has three components: the heat demand of the home (kWh of heat needed per year), the efficiency of the heating system (how much fuel turns into useful heat), and the price of that fuel per kWh.

For gas:

  • Heat demand × 1 / boiler efficiency × gas price per kWh = annual cost.

For a heat pump:

  • Heat demand × 1 / SCOP × blended electricity price per kWh = annual cost.

The catch: every variable in those equations differs by household. The 3-bed semi number is the central anchor; your bill scales up or down with house size and insulation level.

Baseline — a typical UK 3-bed semi

Assumptions:

  • 12,000 kWh/year of useful heat (heating + hot water).
  • Modern condensing gas boiler at 90% seasonal efficiency.
  • Air-source heat pump at SCOP 3.2 (typical UK installed performance).
  • Gas price: 7p/kWh (Ofgem cap, May 2026).
  • Standard variable electricity: 28p/kWh.
  • Octopus Cosy blended: ~17p/kWh (mix of peak + cheap).
  • Octopus Agile (automated): ~14p/kWh blended.

Annual cost calculation:

Gas boiler baseline

12,000 ÷ 0.90 × £0.07 = £933/year gas consumption. Plus standing charges (~£155/year for gas and partial standing charge attribution for the heating side) = ~£780–£900/year for the heating + hot water side of the bill.

Heat pump on standard variable

12,000 ÷ 3.2 × £0.28 = £1,050/year electricity for heating. Plus electricity standing charge (already partially attributed elsewhere) = ~£1,000–£1,100/year. Slightly worse than gas, before any optimisation.

Heat pump on Octopus Cosy

12,000 ÷ 3.2 × £0.17 = £640/year electricity for heating. About 18% cheaper than gas on the same heat demand.

Heat pump on Octopus Agile (smart-controlled)

12,000 ÷ 3.2 × £0.14 = £525/year electricity for heating. Roughly 33% cheaper than gas.

How insulation changes the picture

The heat-demand number (the 12,000 kWh in the example above) is set by your home’s insulation, not your heating system. Improvements scale linearly:

  • Loft top-up (no loft now → 270mm): ~20% reduction in heat demand. 9,600 kWh/year instead of 12,000. Annual saving on Cosy: ~£128.
  • Cavity wall (unfilled → filled): ~25% reduction. 9,000 kWh/year. Annual saving on Cosy: ~£160.
  • Loft + cavity + draughtproofing: ~40% combined reduction. 7,200 kWh/year. Annual saving on Cosy: ~£256.

See the fabric-first retrofit guide for the implementation order and grant routes.

How weather compensation tuning matters

SCOP is sensitive to flow temperature. Every 5°C lower flow temperature improves COP by 10-15%. A typical installer commissions at a conservative flow-temp curve; tuning down across the first winter typically improves SCOP from 3.0 to 3.5+.

Worked impact: a household with SCOP 3.0 on Cosy spends 12,000 ÷ 3.0 × £0.17 = £680/year. Tuned to SCOP 3.5: 12,000 ÷ 3.5 × £0.17 = £583/year. Saving: ~£100/year from a control setting tweak.

Scaling to other house sizes

Rule of thumb for heat demand by house type in UK 2026:

  • 1-bed flat (well-insulated): 4,000-6,000 kWh/year
  • 2-bed terrace: 8,000-10,000 kWh/year
  • 3-bed semi (typical): 11,000-13,000 kWh/year
  • 4-bed detached: 15,000-18,000 kWh/year
  • 5-bed+ or solid-wall detached: 20,000+ kWh/year

Multiply your kWh by the SCOP-divided cost figure relevant to your tariff. The proportions stay constant — a heat pump on Cosy is roughly 80% of the gas cost regardless of house size.

Comparison to oil and LPG

Heat pumps decisively beat oil and LPG, and the gap widens with house size:

  • Heating oil at 9p/kWh delivered, 88% boiler efficiency: 12,000 ÷ 0.88 × £0.09 = £1,227/year. Heat pump on Cosy saves ~£600/year.
  • LPG at 14p/kWh delivered, 88% boiler efficiency: 12,000 ÷ 0.88 × £0.14 = £1,909/year. Heat pump on Cosy saves ~£1,270/year.
  • Electric resistance / panel heaters at 28p/kWh flat: 12,000 × £0.28 = £3,360/year. Heat pump on Cosy saves ~£2,720/year.

Off-gas-grid properties have the strongest running-cost case for switching, which is why DESNZ statistics show heat pump uptake accelerating fastest in rural areas.

What this means for payback

See the dedicated payback period guide for the full IRR calculation. Short version: a £7,500 BUS grant cuts net install cost to ~£6,000–£8,000. Running-cost savings of £200–£500/year vs gas put payback at 12-25 years on gas, 5-10 years on oil, 3-7 years on LPG.

The summary

The headline “is a heat pump cheaper than gas?” is the wrong question — it depends on tariff, insulation, and tuning. A heat pump on a smart tariff, with weather compensation enabled, in a home with loft and cavity insulation cleared, is reliably 15-30% cheaper than gas. The same heat pump on a flat-rate tariff in an uninsulated home is 10-20% more expensive than gas. The system design choices determine which side of break-even you land. Oil and LPG comparisons are unambiguous: heat pumps beat both in every realistic configuration.

Sources

  1. Ofgem — Energy price cap — accessed May 2026
  2. Energy Saving Trust — Heat pump running costs — accessed May 2026
  3. Octopus Energy — Cosy tariff — accessed May 2026
  4. BEIS / DESNZ — Heat Pump Ready trial findings — accessed May 2026